It’s just like it should be. The top dog in the AFC against the top dog in the NFC; it’s the Colts, who started the year 14-0 against the Saints who started the season 13-0. The Colts, seeking their third Lombardi trophy, take on the Saints, making their first ever Super Bowl appearance.

While most would like to see the lowly Saints complete their run to the promised land, it is the Colts who will play the role of favorite entering Sunday’s contest. It might be as simple as answering the question “what have you done for me lately?” In that regard, the Colts are the clear favorite.

Consider what happened in the conference championship games. Against the Vikings the Saints forced six fumbles and picked off a pair of Brett Favre passes, but still needed an unthinkably errant pass from Favre and overtime to book their ticket to Miami with a 31-28 victory.

The Colts on the other hand turned a 13-17 halftime deficit into a dominant 30-17 performance. Against the Jets and “Gang Green,” the league’s top defensive unit, Manning was dominant. Manning threw for 377 yards and three scores (the Jets surrendered only eight passing touchdowns in the regular season), Joseph Addai rushed for 80 yards, and receiver Pierre Garcon finished with 11 catches for 151 yards.

Such a strong showing hardly bodes well for the Saints, whose defense ranked 25th in the regular season. On the bright side, the Saints defense did give up only 15 touchdowns through the air in the regular season, albeit it in a run-oriented division.

However, there is one thing the Saints defense does do remarkably well: create turnovers. New Orleans’ defense compiled 39 takeaways during the regular season and a league-best eight defensive scores. Their staggering +11 turnover ratio has been the key statistic in their Super Bowl campaign.

Still, make no mistake, the Colts are the favorites. Both teams have proven through the season they know how to win close games, but they’ve also shown they can lose to lackluster clubs. The Colts lost to the 6-10 Bills while the Saints fell to the 3-13 Buccaneers. Both teams are formidable, but not without their share of weaknesses.

The difference maker is clearly Manning. The 10-time pro bowler won his record fourth league MVP this season and has proven unshakeable in the heat of the moment. Manning even turned Garcon, a receiver from Division III Mount Union, into a star in the AFC championship game.

Take nothing away from the Saints and signalcaller Drew Brees, but if the game comes down to Manning’s poise or the Saint’s opportunistic defense, the Colts will emerge victorious. One caveat for the Saints: Colts defensive end Dwight Freeney is nursing an injured right ankle and could miss the Super Bowl.

If Freeney doesn’t play, the scales may tip in favor of the Saints, but the Colts insist he is only questionable for the game. Predictions: Colts 27 Saints 24; MVP: Peyton Manning